Expert Workshop: Uncertainty in climate change modeling and policy

The expert workshop brought together researchers and experts to discuss latest developments in uncertainty analysis.

The expert workshop took place on 13-14 May 2014 in Milan, Italy and focused on uncertainty, as a key factor of climate change. In fact, to understand the problem of climate change and formulate appropriate policy responses, it is necessary to understand major uncertainties and provide related risk management strategies.

In recent years, new research has emerged with the potential to improve the way we model uncertainty in climate change policy. Advances in decision theory, dynamic and stochastic programming, and in data availability allows for a richer accounting of uncertainty than previously possible. Yet, important challenges remain in the applicability of these new methods to large scale integrated assessment models (IAMs) which are routinely used for assessing climate change policies.

The expert workshop provided an opportunity for reviewing the latest developments in uncertainty and risk analysis in climate change, and their potential applications to IAMs. To this aim it discussed theoretical, numerical and application aspects as well as recommendations for modeling climate change policies under uncertainty.



Session I: Decision making under uncertainty

Session II: Incorporating uncertainty in IAMs

Session III: Managing risks and vulnerabilities


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