ADVANCE researchers decomposed the sensitivity of future long term CO2 emissions to their major drivers: population, income, energy intensity, fossil resources availability, and low carbon technologies development.
The results of this research are now presented in the article "Sensitivity of projected long term CO2 emissions across the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways” published in Nature Climate Change. They show that economic growth and energy intensity are the most important determinants of future CO2 emission across different socio-economic pathways. Projected population seems to matter less in determining future emissions. Fossil fuel and low carbon resources rank in between. Also, results show that the different drivers interact: for example a richer world will lead to lower emission increase if it is a sustainable one, and vice versa.
The article is authored by researchers from the following institutions: Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Politecnico di Milano, Bocconi University, National Technical University of Athens, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Utrecht University, Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement (CIRED), Ecole des Ponts and University College London.
G. Marangoni, M. Tavoni, V. Bosetti, E. Borgonovo, P. Capros, O. Fricko, D. E. H. J. Gernaat, C. Guivarch, P. Havlik, D. Huppmann, N. Johnson, P. Karkatsoulis, I. Keppo, V. Krey, E. Ó Broin, J. Price, D. P. van Vuuren, “Sensitivity of projected long term CO2 emissions across the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways”, Nature Climate Change, DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3199
Read more in the press release.