Expert Workshop: Uncertainty in climate change modeling and policy
The expert workshop brought together researchers and experts to discuss latest developments in uncertainty analysis.
The expert workshop took place on 13-14 May 2014 in Milan, Italy and focused on uncertainty, as a key factor of climate change. In fact, to understand the problem of climate change and formulate appropriate policy responses, it is necessary to understand major uncertainties and provide related risk management strategies.
In recent years, new research has emerged with the potential to improve the way we model uncertainty in climate change policy. Advances in decision theory, dynamic and stochastic programming, and in data availability allows for a richer accounting of uncertainty than previously possible. Yet, important challenges remain in the applicability of these new methods to large scale integrated assessment models (IAMs) which are routinely used for assessing climate change policies.
The expert workshop provided an opportunity for reviewing the latest developments in uncertainty and risk analysis in climate change, and their potential applications to IAMs. To this aim it discussed theoretical, numerical and application aspects as well as recommendations for modeling climate change policies under uncertainty.
Presentations:
Introduction
Session I: Decision making under uncertainty
- Antony Millner - LSE: Uncertainty and decision in climate change economics
- Loic Berger - FEEM: Abatement under ambiguity
Session II: Incorporating uncertainty in IAMs
- Haewon McJeon - PNNL: Integrated Comparison of Uncertainties in Climate Change Mitigation
- Laurent Drouet - FEEM: Selection of robust climate policies under current knowledge of uncertainties
- Erin Baker - U. Mass: R&D Decision Making Frameworks
- Emanuele Borgonovo - Bocconi Univ.: Global sensitivity analysis and climate change
Session III: Managing risks and vulnerabilities
- Antony Patt - ETH: Instrument effectiveness and uncertainty: a review of empirical and model findings
- Roger Cooke - RFF: Messaging Uncertainty in Climate Change
- Presentation from main modeling groups on their experience in incorporating uncertainty into IAMs: Celine Guivarch - CIRED, Volker Krey - IIASA, Elmar Kriegler - PIK, Gauthier De Maere - FEEM, Ilkka Keppo - UCL
Documents:
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