Modelling energy services and end use

Challenge

So far, IAMs focus much more on energy supply than on energy demand. Still, energy demand is a main driver of emissions, and related to this, energy efficiency can form a major part of mitigation strategies. A key reason for IAM models to focus on supply is the level of detail required in addressing demand in an advanced way. By improving the representation of energy demand, the validity and robustness can be improved. Moreover, increasing the level of demand side detail makes it possible to explore a greater variety of mitigation pathways and increases policy relevance.

Key questions raised

• What’s the role of energy efficiency improvements for climate change mitigation?
• What do models gain from a more detailed representation?
• Can we use more detailed energy demand models to derive relevant information for aggregated models (e.g. elasticities)
• What options can hybrid macro-economic/technology models provide?

Results achieved

ADVANCE improved the representation of future energy demand and energy efficiency in IAMs and contributed to the further development of hybrid models.